Wednesday, April 6, 2016

AUDUSD - Update 6th April 2016

Overnight the minor level at 7540 was hit, this confirms as a said yesterday that there wasn't really any buyers at this level. We have been chomping around here for a few hours now but basically there isn't interest from real money to buy here.

Attention now turns to 7435, the first real level in my opinion that we could see real money lining up with buy orders. There has already been considerable trading action between 7480 and 7530 so I am not expecting a lot of resistance once price shifts below 7530 until get under 7480 where the ride might slow up a little.

How to play it:

At this stage I only see one way to play this as that's run a stop sell order below 7530 with a SL above 7560, for a run down the hill to 7435.

Tuesday, April 5, 2016

AUDUSD - Update 5th April 2016

Good morning All

There will be some rough and tumble in the Aussie today with the RBA given its decision on rates at 2:30pm local time, this always adds some volatility. This begs the question of where next. 

This is what we do know is that the levels I identified yesterday at 0.7530 and 0.7448 should be in play. Its difficult to trade these levels safely until after the news at 2:30pm and I would only trade them if the news didn't break them, remember the fundamentals of price action trading once a level is revisited its basically done, they can be used again and they can hold but they make better break out plays after the first hit.

I think the news can open the way for a push down to 0.7435 in the next few days, only time will tell I suppose. 

The way I think this can be played:

Wait for a break of 0.7530, as once this level is done there has been a lot of buying and selling from 7530 to 7470 which means that most of the action has already been taken out, so there should be heavy stop sell orders below 0.7530 which will push it lower to the buy orders starting at 0.7435. It should be a relatively safe trade which you can place with a small stop loss somewhere around 0.7560. This trade will depend on how 7530 is broken and force of the break as a forceful break could snap the currency back up 50 or so pips in quick time. Wait for the break confirmation and take advantage of the stop orders as it runs down the hill for an easy 80 pips.

Asia Lunchtime

I note that 0.7570 has been taken out in the morning session, with buyers getting orders filled for the afternoon announcement on rates. The bounce seems non existent at the moment, as I said yesterday I don't think this level has any real buyers in it, its been used and abused quite a bit lately, price could easily slide right through it. The next big level I can see is 0.7530, the road to here has been noisy in the last couple of weeks so expect price to not meet a lot of resistance along the way. I still believe 0.7435 is the first level we will see real money buyers.