Observations and Trades

Hi Everyone

Its a pretty interesting day today after quite a bit of  movement overnight in London and New York. I want to share some observations on the market that I am seeing so far.

In Aussie i was waiting for the daily close but after looking at what happened to price during the New York session last night I am pretty luke warm about shorting the aussie at the present time. It's retreat from below 0.9100 was very swift and immediate, this makes me very shy about shorting it, the daily candle formation at todays close was very unconvincing for the short players and very encouraging for the long's.

In CAD the short play is being put down pretty swiftly, as the gold price is continually bid by our friends in India and China as a way to diversify away from government paper can't really see anything changing here soon. The speculation that the Canadian central bank will also have to lift rates sooner rather than later is also underpinning the canadian.

The pound continues to suffer from bad press and constant speculation about a hung parliament driven by constantly close opinion polls showing the labour party and conservatives neck and neck. I believe the trend is definitely down the hard bit is getting a high probability entry, but I am searching for it.

The Euro is stuck in one small range, and being stangled by the Euro zone finance ministers inability to make a decision on Greece, for F@ck's sake people make a decision so the market can move on.


So this brings me to the play of the day.


USD/JPY Trade

Criteria

• Really nice formed daily candles last two days signalling a downtrend
• US 2yr Bond Yields - starting to cool off
• Yen repatriation should pick up steam in the next couple of weeks as we run into fiscal year end
• Lots of dailylight between entry price and next resistance, first one located at psychological 00 and then down to 89.70 and then the next 00 at 89.00 lots of room to run if it gets going.
• Last weeks weekly spinning top confirming an interim top at 91.00 locking out the topside for now.

Entry - 90.45 
( I have a rule on this pair, if formations and fundmentals have been stacking up over a few days then I wont wait for a daily close in this pair, this is not something i do with anything else but I have managed to make it work with this pair.)

Stop 1 -  90.75
Stop 2 -  91.15

Take Profit 1 -89.70
Take Profit 2 - 89.05

Runner - (To be dertmined)

Update 1 - Admin Fee achieved


Update 2 - Break even established - A rebound is very possible if risk aversion from last nights New York session is not carried forward into London.

Update 3 - Closed for Break even