Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Trading the Daily for High Probability

For anyone that has been following me for a while will tell you my main workspace in the daily chart, I wouldn't say I disregard the smaller timeframes but I dont pay them a lot of attention, as the noise factor tends to skew my way of thinking, the daily is accurate and gives you time to react to what the market is telling you in a controlled manner and isnt this what trading success is really all about.

The following is some examples of how I like to trade the daily chart, what I like, what I avoid.



You will notice in above chart I have added some comments about reversal and continuation candles, these are normally easy to spot, look at the long wicks, look at where they open and close are they inside the previous day, trading this way you can analyse 20 pairs in 1 hour and just look for the most probable, so many traders make this stuff hard by using 5 different timeframes, 10 different indicators, its not rocket science. I am often asked how can I fit all the reading into my day that I do, its because I dont obsess about finding every pattern, every Support/Ressitance line on every timeframe for 20 pairs, you dont need it only the biggest levels will be respected the most. I make a judgement on the balance of probabilities, and then use my reading time to focus on market knowledge stuff that might seem insignificant when you first read it but one day your going to be glad you made the effort.

Lets look at some more charts



Check out how USDJPY cross gives an absolute no brainer of a trade here, classic trend reversal. I can't stress enough how important it is to wait for the appropriate setup I will wait weeks if that means I get the right setup. If you held that USDJPY trade it was worth 400 pips approximately thats your months income right there, I know I can live on that. One trade and you are done, patience is the biggest factor for new traders, the market makers and brokers want you to trade the 15 minute chart, its like taking a lollie from a baby for them they have huge resources at least enough to move it 20 pips and kick you out of that trade. If you start taking these trades, 20 pips or 0.010% move who cares this sort of trading allows you to live with that. If you also wait for the appropriate setup then you have time to plan your stop, plan your entry, plan your take profit zones, thinking ahead be in that area before the market is and know exactly what to do.

I have talked enough for today I am sure you get the idea of what I am saying here, planning trades, taking only the best setups, yields you pips, unplanned trades yields you pain and suffering.

Good Luck All

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