Overnight the minor level at 7540 was hit, this confirms as a said yesterday that there wasn't really any buyers at this level. We have been chomping around here for a few hours now but basically there isn't interest from real money to buy here.
Attention now turns to 7435, the first real level in my opinion that we could see real money lining up with buy orders. There has already been considerable trading action between 7480 and 7530 so I am not expecting a lot of resistance once price shifts below 7530 until get under 7480 where the ride might slow up a little.
How to play it:
At this stage I only see one way to play this as that's run a stop sell order below 7530 with a SL above 7560, for a run down the hill to 7435.
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
Tuesday, April 5, 2016
AUDUSD - Update 5th April 2016
Good morning All
There will be some rough and tumble in the Aussie today with the RBA given its decision on rates at 2:30pm local time, this always adds some volatility. This begs the question of where next.
This is what we do know is that the levels I identified yesterday at 0.7530 and 0.7448 should be in play. Its difficult to trade these levels safely until after the news at 2:30pm and I would only trade them if the news didn't break them, remember the fundamentals of price action trading once a level is revisited its basically done, they can be used again and they can hold but they make better break out plays after the first hit.
I think the news can open the way for a push down to 0.7435 in the next few days, only time will tell I suppose.
The way I think this can be played:
Wait for a break of 0.7530, as once this level is done there has been a lot of buying and selling from 7530 to 7470 which means that most of the action has already been taken out, so there should be heavy stop sell orders below 0.7530 which will push it lower to the buy orders starting at 0.7435. It should be a relatively safe trade which you can place with a small stop loss somewhere around 0.7560. This trade will depend on how 7530 is broken and force of the break as a forceful break could snap the currency back up 50 or so pips in quick time. Wait for the break confirmation and take advantage of the stop orders as it runs down the hill for an easy 80 pips.
Asia Lunchtime
I note that 0.7570 has been taken out in the morning session, with buyers getting orders filled for the afternoon announcement on rates. The bounce seems non existent at the moment, as I said yesterday I don't think this level has any real buyers in it, its been used and abused quite a bit lately, price could easily slide right through it. The next big level I can see is 0.7530, the road to here has been noisy in the last couple of weeks so expect price to not meet a lot of resistance along the way. I still believe 0.7435 is the first level we will see real money buyers.
There will be some rough and tumble in the Aussie today with the RBA given its decision on rates at 2:30pm local time, this always adds some volatility. This begs the question of where next.
This is what we do know is that the levels I identified yesterday at 0.7530 and 0.7448 should be in play. Its difficult to trade these levels safely until after the news at 2:30pm and I would only trade them if the news didn't break them, remember the fundamentals of price action trading once a level is revisited its basically done, they can be used again and they can hold but they make better break out plays after the first hit.
I think the news can open the way for a push down to 0.7435 in the next few days, only time will tell I suppose.
The way I think this can be played:
Wait for a break of 0.7530, as once this level is done there has been a lot of buying and selling from 7530 to 7470 which means that most of the action has already been taken out, so there should be heavy stop sell orders below 0.7530 which will push it lower to the buy orders starting at 0.7435. It should be a relatively safe trade which you can place with a small stop loss somewhere around 0.7560. This trade will depend on how 7530 is broken and force of the break as a forceful break could snap the currency back up 50 or so pips in quick time. Wait for the break confirmation and take advantage of the stop orders as it runs down the hill for an easy 80 pips.
Asia Lunchtime
I note that 0.7570 has been taken out in the morning session, with buyers getting orders filled for the afternoon announcement on rates. The bounce seems non existent at the moment, as I said yesterday I don't think this level has any real buyers in it, its been used and abused quite a bit lately, price could easily slide right through it. The next big level I can see is 0.7530, the road to here has been noisy in the last couple of weeks so expect price to not meet a lot of resistance along the way. I still believe 0.7435 is the first level we will see real money buyers.
GBPNZD - Update 5th April 2016
Asia Morning
Yesterday I flagged that this pair would chomp through 2.06, 2.07 and 2.08 and thats pretty much what happened yesterday, for today I would expect resistance to come in around 2.0970 to 2.10, price should rebound off here before continuing the push up the hill towards 2.12.
Lets look at the chart:
Price will search for the high 2.09's as the market will be long until to this point. A pull-back or pause at worst should be evident back towards 2.0880 before pushing through this level and higher.
Lots of trading opportunities for this pair before the news later in the week for NZD
Asia Lunchtime Update
This pair is behaving nicely, building a little base around 2.0950, headwinds coming in from london later today with Pound news. Not always but news just tends to perpetuate the trend that's in place as the big players in the market take advantage of extra liquidity to force price where they want them.
If we go up from here I am expecting 2.10 to break and stops to be triggered from 2.1025 onwards.
Yesterday I flagged that this pair would chomp through 2.06, 2.07 and 2.08 and thats pretty much what happened yesterday, for today I would expect resistance to come in around 2.0970 to 2.10, price should rebound off here before continuing the push up the hill towards 2.12.
Lets look at the chart:
Price will search for the high 2.09's as the market will be long until to this point. A pull-back or pause at worst should be evident back towards 2.0880 before pushing through this level and higher.
Lots of trading opportunities for this pair before the news later in the week for NZD
Asia Lunchtime Update
This pair is behaving nicely, building a little base around 2.0950, headwinds coming in from london later today with Pound news. Not always but news just tends to perpetuate the trend that's in place as the big players in the market take advantage of extra liquidity to force price where they want them.
If we go up from here I am expecting 2.10 to break and stops to be triggered from 2.1025 onwards.
NZDUSD - Update 5th April 2016
Good Morning All
The comm dolls have had a fair run up the hill lately. The NZDUSD looks cooked for now and started to roll-over, NFP resistance from last Friday at around 0.6840 ish was pushed through yesterday with barely a whimper as expected all the buyers got filled last Friday after the news.
So this begs the question where too from here, lets take a look at the chart:
For now I have left the 0.6845 line drawn in to illustrate yesterday's Euro, and US session push through this level. The market in my opinion is in clear air with plenty to chomp through all the way down to 0.6730ish area. There may be a small pull-back around 0.68 but I see this as a minor blip on the radar.
Trading opportunity starts from around 0.6825 where stops are probably going to gets triggered which will run this pair to the low 67's
I will keep updating in the next few days and see how this one plays out.
Simon
The comm dolls have had a fair run up the hill lately. The NZDUSD looks cooked for now and started to roll-over, NFP resistance from last Friday at around 0.6840 ish was pushed through yesterday with barely a whimper as expected all the buyers got filled last Friday after the news.
So this begs the question where too from here, lets take a look at the chart:
For now I have left the 0.6845 line drawn in to illustrate yesterday's Euro, and US session push through this level. The market in my opinion is in clear air with plenty to chomp through all the way down to 0.6730ish area. There may be a small pull-back around 0.68 but I see this as a minor blip on the radar.
Trading opportunity starts from around 0.6825 where stops are probably going to gets triggered which will run this pair to the low 67's
I will keep updating in the next few days and see how this one plays out.
Simon
Monday, April 4, 2016
GBPUSD - Update 4th April 2016
The GBPUSD has been a bit all over the place lately. The overall trend is still down and its well deserved at the moment. The USD has been strong and the overall fundamentals despite some commentary in the market does back this trend up.
This dosen't mean there isn't opportunity for this pair intraday and playing both sides. So lets look at a chart:
To me it seems up and back, up and back, bit directionless but these can also yield some great opportunities.
There will be buy orders at 1.4065 but this level is used and abused now, with three touches in the last few weeks.
The better level is the one below it at 1.3925, fits all the high probability measures like enough time between visits and also when it was last hit buyers met it with large buy orders. On the topside the top edge seems like 1.4500 but we need to see the price action closer to that level before a definitive level can be detrmined.
Trading the the edge of the up and back action seems like the safest option for this pair.
This dosen't mean there isn't opportunity for this pair intraday and playing both sides. So lets look at a chart:
To me it seems up and back, up and back, bit directionless but these can also yield some great opportunities.
There will be buy orders at 1.4065 but this level is used and abused now, with three touches in the last few weeks.
The better level is the one below it at 1.3925, fits all the high probability measures like enough time between visits and also when it was last hit buyers met it with large buy orders. On the topside the top edge seems like 1.4500 but we need to see the price action closer to that level before a definitive level can be detrmined.
Trading the the edge of the up and back action seems like the safest option for this pair.
GBPNZD - Update 04th April 2016
When looking at this chart I think its fair to say that it has ran a fair way down the hill. I think its entirely possible that we will start to get an upward bounce this week but like everything I don't guess I wait for the market to tellme.
So lets look at my 1h chart for this:
The comm dolls like AUD and NZD look toppy for now and gold looks like it needs to fall off a cliff however don't take my word for it I don't trade gold but looking at the charts its seems like it wants a rest.
As the chart indicates there is a lot of chop around the price immediately above where price is at the moment and if news can fuel it then I think we will make our way through the 2.07, 2.08 and up to the 2.09's pretty easily. There is good seller pressure at 2.0970 to 2.10 which should be the first stop on the train and the first place it should make it too once its gets through the chop.
The next section from 2.10 to 2.1150 is pretty solid by the looks with sell orders and I would expect this will take a bit to get through here. I personally like the next level up for a sell, there is a couple of reasons for this:
1. Its a good couple of weeks since we have been here, time for the sell orders to build up.
2. Last time the price moved sharply from this level dropping 250 pips in a few hours suggesting a real imbalance between buyers and sellers.
3. As mentioned on the chart the cup formation gets completed at 2.1220 so normally buyers are going to look for the next level up to start selling at.
This might take some days to play out but there could be opportunities when price pulls back after breakouts around the 2.10 level to ride it up the hill.
Good Luck
Simon
So lets look at my 1h chart for this:
The comm dolls like AUD and NZD look toppy for now and gold looks like it needs to fall off a cliff however don't take my word for it I don't trade gold but looking at the charts its seems like it wants a rest.
As the chart indicates there is a lot of chop around the price immediately above where price is at the moment and if news can fuel it then I think we will make our way through the 2.07, 2.08 and up to the 2.09's pretty easily. There is good seller pressure at 2.0970 to 2.10 which should be the first stop on the train and the first place it should make it too once its gets through the chop.
The next section from 2.10 to 2.1150 is pretty solid by the looks with sell orders and I would expect this will take a bit to get through here. I personally like the next level up for a sell, there is a couple of reasons for this:
1. Its a good couple of weeks since we have been here, time for the sell orders to build up.
2. Last time the price moved sharply from this level dropping 250 pips in a few hours suggesting a real imbalance between buyers and sellers.
3. As mentioned on the chart the cup formation gets completed at 2.1220 so normally buyers are going to look for the next level up to start selling at.
This might take some days to play out but there could be opportunities when price pulls back after breakouts around the 2.10 level to ride it up the hill.
Good Luck
Simon
AUDUSD - Update 4th April 2016
Hi Everyone
Today I want address one of the fundamental issues with the FX market and that's when to trade and when not too. As many of you know I like the fundamentals of any market but you can't trade them per say, they are nice to work out what might happen in the future and a big picture view especially if you position trade, but for the active trader this is not enough.
Buying and selling is the answer and where to do that, now I hear you saying yeh sure Simon everyone says that and this is true they do, but basically understanding where to buy and where to sell is the key, and there are some really simple things we can do with a chart to understand this.
As many of my readers know I am not a fan of indicators as nearly all of them are lagging and by the time they give you the signal the move is over or nearly done. If you need proof of this then go back through any FX chart, any time frame and see how much of the move was done before the indicator told you to get in.
The answer is simply to identify on your charts where the imbalance in price is as this will nearly always tell you where you need to be. For many traders they know this already but patience is there undoing when it comes to trading they just can't wait long enough for price to get into the zone for them.
Lets have an example:
This is a 1 hour chart of the AUDUSD, my reading of this is that buying at these levels is risky, there is a huge block of buying/selling from 76 to 77 which has been going on for the last week, because price has been unable to trade higher or lower this means that the market is pretty much in balance for every buyer we have a seller, and whichever way you dice it thats a receipe for loosing in FX if you try and pick tops and bottoms if you were to trade this. This is because by the time the range forms the market will be ready to break out of it.
I can't see an upside here, traders always tell me that you need to see both sides and to some extent I would agree with that but clearly I don't see this pair going up at the moment, if it does then I will stand aside and wait for a confirmation that we have broken 77. I clearly see this pair going down, from 0.7600 to 0.7530 there is a lot of clear air so there should be a lot of buying and selling that will step this pair down in a stair pattern through this area where again the buyers/sellers will wrestle for control.
There is a nice buying level at 0.7530 but if you look to the left of it there is a lot of noise which has probably taken out most of the buyers/sellers here already. I want my trades to move from my level quickly I dont see this happening at that level, I see congestion.
I personally like the level of 0.7436 this is clear and the move out of this level last time was decisive meaning there should be lots of buyers waiting here for a Pull back into the mid 0.75's. A stop below 0.7515 is advisable as a clear decisive break here would dismiss this level.
As always patience is the key, tight stops and money management keep in you the game.
Today I want address one of the fundamental issues with the FX market and that's when to trade and when not too. As many of you know I like the fundamentals of any market but you can't trade them per say, they are nice to work out what might happen in the future and a big picture view especially if you position trade, but for the active trader this is not enough.
Buying and selling is the answer and where to do that, now I hear you saying yeh sure Simon everyone says that and this is true they do, but basically understanding where to buy and where to sell is the key, and there are some really simple things we can do with a chart to understand this.
As many of my readers know I am not a fan of indicators as nearly all of them are lagging and by the time they give you the signal the move is over or nearly done. If you need proof of this then go back through any FX chart, any time frame and see how much of the move was done before the indicator told you to get in.
The answer is simply to identify on your charts where the imbalance in price is as this will nearly always tell you where you need to be. For many traders they know this already but patience is there undoing when it comes to trading they just can't wait long enough for price to get into the zone for them.
Lets have an example:
This is a 1 hour chart of the AUDUSD, my reading of this is that buying at these levels is risky, there is a huge block of buying/selling from 76 to 77 which has been going on for the last week, because price has been unable to trade higher or lower this means that the market is pretty much in balance for every buyer we have a seller, and whichever way you dice it thats a receipe for loosing in FX if you try and pick tops and bottoms if you were to trade this. This is because by the time the range forms the market will be ready to break out of it.
I can't see an upside here, traders always tell me that you need to see both sides and to some extent I would agree with that but clearly I don't see this pair going up at the moment, if it does then I will stand aside and wait for a confirmation that we have broken 77. I clearly see this pair going down, from 0.7600 to 0.7530 there is a lot of clear air so there should be a lot of buying and selling that will step this pair down in a stair pattern through this area where again the buyers/sellers will wrestle for control.
There is a nice buying level at 0.7530 but if you look to the left of it there is a lot of noise which has probably taken out most of the buyers/sellers here already. I want my trades to move from my level quickly I dont see this happening at that level, I see congestion.
I personally like the level of 0.7436 this is clear and the move out of this level last time was decisive meaning there should be lots of buyers waiting here for a Pull back into the mid 0.75's. A stop below 0.7515 is advisable as a clear decisive break here would dismiss this level.
As always patience is the key, tight stops and money management keep in you the game.
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